Will Sale Pitch Again This Year

RED SOX INSIDER

Tomase: What history tells us about Sale'south recovery timetable

Ruddy SOX INSIDER

Any hopes the Cherry-red Sox have of contending in 2022 residue on a skinny pair of shoulders. Left-hander Chris Sale had Tommy John surgery on March 30 -- his 31st birthday -- and expects to pitch again next year.

Only how quickly can the Red Sox anticipate his return? And what kind of performance should they expect when he gets in that location? If history is any guide, a more realistic scenario has Auction returning to course in 2022 -- if at all.

According to an invaluable database maintained by Jon Roegele, 67 pitchers between the ages of thirty and 32 underwent Tommy John between 1974 (Tommy John himself) and 2022 (Johnny Cueto). Of those 67, 56 returned to the big leagues in an average of 18 and a half months. Ten never made it back at all, and one outlier -- former World Series MVP Jose Rijo -- completed an improbable comeback SIX YEARS after 1995 surgery.

Rijo stands every bit a instance unto himself, however, since he overcame i shoulder surgery and 4 elbow procedures before returning in 2001. He rehabbed so long, he actually received a Hall of Fame vote during his absence.

Near of the pitchers in this age range who saw their careers end after Tommy John without throwing some other pitch were relievers. The only starter of note was former Marlins right-hander Josh Johnson. The 6-foot-7 flamethrower made consecutive All-Star teams in 2009 and 2010 while going 26-xi with a 2.80 ERA, but his failure to render from Tommy John in 2022 deserves an asterisk, since information technology came seven years after his starting time procedure.

While the average return takes a year and a half, 25 of the 56 pitchers on this list retook a big league mound within fifteen months. If Sale meets this more aggressive timetable, he could exist pitching in Boston past anywhere from May to July, and starting to deliver a return on the five-year, $145 meg extension that kicked in this season.

The trouble is, there's a difference between returning to the big leagues and regaining Cy Young course, and one is a lot easier than the other, as The Boston Globe's Alex Speier noted in a similar exercise.

A good place to start is Tommy John himself. The 31-year-onetime had baseball's best winning percentage in 1973 earlier bravado out his elbow trying the novel surgery that now bears his name in September of 1974. He returned 19 months later on in Apr of 1976 and made 31 starts with the Dodgers, going x-10 with a three.09 ERA. He pitched for another 14 years and won some other 162 games, retiring at age 46 in 1989 after a 26-year career.

More typical on the positive stop of the spectrum is someone similar Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter, who needed only a year and a week to return from Tommy John at historic period 33 in 2008, appearing in his start game on July thirty. He fabricated three starts before information technology shutting it down until a lone relief appearance in September.

With another offseason nether his belt, however, he embarked on what represents a best-case scenario for Sale: winning 17 games with a league-leading ii.24 ERA in 2009 en road to a second-identify end in the Cy Immature race, so winning 16 games and making an All-Star squad in 2010. Other pitchers weren't and then lucky. Former Cy Young Award winner Pat Hentgen had already struggled for iii years when he went nether the knife at age 32 in 2001. He returned xiii months afterwards, but was a shell of himself over the next three years, going 9-21 with a 5.27 ERA earlier retiring.

Similarly, former 17-game winner Gavin Floyd struggled through his terminal three seasons, while one-fourth dimension All-Star Eric Milton was limited to just five starts before calling it a career. Closer to home, Daisuke Matsuzaka delivered an ERA over 8.00 in his render from surgery in 2012 and was out of baseball game by 2014.

Ane success story with local connections is John Lackey. Maligned for the beginning two years of his Red Sox career as an $82.five million bust, Lackey underwent Tommy John later on the 2011 season and missed the entire 2012 campaign. He returned in 2013 to win 10 games with 3.54 ERA before playing a pivotal role in that Boston Strong postseason. He won another title with the Cubs in 2022 and won 60 games with a iii.57 ERA over his final v years mail service-surgery.

Another best-case scenario is Tim Hudson. The A's right-hander had already recorded iii peak-6 Cy Young finishes when he had Tommy John in 2008 at age 32. He returned 13 months later, in September 2009, and went 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA in seven starts. A year later, he was a 17-game winner and All-Star. He made another All-Star team in 2022 with the Giants, winning his first World Series at age 38.

Which way Auction goes is anyone's guess, but if the Scarlet Sox are being realistic, they won't bank on his return to form until 2022.

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Source: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/if-history-kind-red-sox-hopes-chris-sale-2021-should-be-wait-til-next-year